MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has given the green light to a comprehensive coal industry plan that envisions annual production reaching 662 million tonnes by 2050 in its baseline scenario. This strategy extends the country’s coal policies well into the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia’s coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes, making the new target a significant upward revision from current levels. The approval was granted under Order No. 2606-r, dated September 22, 2026.
Multiple production trajectories are outlined within the plan, rather than a single forecast. The baseline scenario anticipates a production volume of 530.1 million tonnes by 2030. By 2036, output is projected to increase to 595.2 million tonnes before reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternate scenarios forecast lower totals for that year, with the stress scenario estimating 318.9 million tonnes and the conservative projection reaching 460.8 million tonnes. The inertial scenario suggests roughly 586.4 million tonnes.
Long-term export targets are also integral to the plan. Under the baseline scenario, exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, rising to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes in 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak highlighted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan additionally considers domestic consumption, processing capacity, extraction techniques, and regional output distribution.
Eastern Siberia and the Far East to Play Larger Role in Production
The government’s strategy emphasizes expanding coal extraction in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions contributed 48.3% of total Russian coal production in 2024. By 2050, across different scenarios, their share is projected to range between 53.9% and 56.7%. Russia’s coal reserves are reported to exceed 273 billion tonnes of explored deposits. The plan calls for maintaining existing mining capacities while developing new resource zones to meet future targets.
Coal processing and extraction methods are assigned specific numerical goals. In 2024, processed coal excluding lignite made up 58.9% of total output. This share is expected to increase to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining was responsible for 78.4% of Russian coal production in 2024, with its share projected to grow to between 82% and 85%. Additionally, the plan addresses improvements in labor productivity, mining technologies, safety standards, and environmental requirements.
Three-Phase Approach to Program Implementation through 2050
The plan will be executed in three phases. The first phase extends until 2030 and focuses on near-term industry development and operational initiatives. The second phase spans from 2031 to 2036, emphasizing processing, utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final stage runs from 2037 until 2050. The Energy Ministry will coordinate the execution alongside other federal and regional agencies, providing annual progress updates to the Ministry of Economic Development in accordance with government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the revised plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry programme approved in 2020, which extended until 2035. Novak indicated that the new strategy projects a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with the broader economic multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne output level is specific to the baseline scenario and does not represent the only possible production pathway.