ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the total global cereal production is expected to reach approximately 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure indicates a 2% decrease compared to the record harvest achieved in 2025. The latest forecast also revises downward the previous estimate by 3.4 million tonnes. Despite the yearly decline, worldwide cereal output is projected to stay as the second-highest on record, with a reduction of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to last year.
Much of the global outlook’s softness is attributed to maize, with production forecasted at 1.309 billion tonnes. Drought and high temperatures have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland experienced some of the largest downward revisions, while India and Paraguay saw smaller reductions. Conversely, stronger yields in Argentina and Brazil helped offset part of the decline, and both South American producers remain on track for maize harvests significantly above recent averages.
The prospects for wheat have improved compared to previous assessments, though global production still falls short of last year’s levels. The Food and Agriculture Organization now estimates wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from its earlier projection. Better yield expectations for Canada and Morocco contributed to this positive revision. Forecasts also increased for Russia and Ukraine, whereas dry conditions have led to lower estimates for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production remains 3.8% below that of 2025.
Weakness in maize drags down global grain supplies
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is forecasted at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Gains in Myanmar and Sri Lanka’s crop yields provided some support for this outlook, but they were not enough to offset weaker forecasts for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Notably, U.S. rice acreage has fallen to levels unseen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to global rice supply.
Total global cereal consumption for 2026/27 is projected at 2.965 billion tonnes, marking a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous season. While consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, wheat usage is anticipated to decline from the high levels seen last season. World rice utilization is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by increasing food demand amid rising populations. Additionally, feed demand continues to support coarse grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
High cereal stocks persist amid a reduced outlook
The global cereal stockpile at the end of the 2027 seasons is projected at 947.2 million tonnes, representing a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this, the figure remains 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 31.6%, down slightly from 31.9% last season. Wheat reserves are forecasted to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas inventories of maize and barley have declined, contributing to the overall reduction in stock estimates.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is anticipated to total 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Nonetheless, this figure will still be below the record volume recorded in 2025/26. The rise is primarily driven by increased maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global rice trade is forecasted at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, which is 1.9% lower than the record level reached during 2025.